IMF lifts growth outlook on more benign tariffs as revived US-China trade war looms

The International Monetary Fund edged up its 2025 global growth forecast on Tuesday as tariff shocks and financial conditions have proven more benign than expected, but warned that a renewed US-China trade war threatened by President Donald Trump could slow output significantly. The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook that recent trade deals between the US and some major economies have avoided the worst of Trump's threatened tariffs with little retaliation, prompting its second growth upgrade since April. The IMF now predicts global real GDP growth at 3.2 percent for 2025, up from a July forecast of 3.0 percent and a more severe April forecast of 2.8 percent that came after Trump imposed broad global "reciprocal" tariffs and a...